10:10am | The Janice Hahn Campaign, which is running to represent North Long Beach in Congress against Congressman Laura Richardson, released the following polling memo today:
The departure of California Assemblyman Isadore Hall from the 44th Congressional District race last week further establishes Congresswoman Janice Hahn as the clear favorite to win the seat because she is the main beneficiary of Hall’s vote. A survey conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3), shows that over half of Hall’s voters move to Hahn in a two-way match-up with Congresswoman Laura Richardson.
The race was widely expected to be a three-way contest between Hall, Richardson, and Hahn. FM3’s survey showed that Hahn was the clear frontrunner in such a three-way primary contest. Yet Hahn’s advantage is just as dominant in a two-way race with Richardson, with Hahn leading by 21 points, 47 percent to 26 percent. (See Figure 1)
Hahn has a substantial lead with voters regardless of political party, age, or gender. She also has a 3-to-1 lead with Latino voters (54 percent to 18 percent)—a key finding in a district where Latino voters are anticipated to equal African American voters in number in the primary election and to represent a larger share of the vote in the general election. Hahn’s lead is even greater among Latinos 50 years of age or older, at 67 percent to 14 percent. Hahn’s lead with Latino voters reflects her own leadership as well as her family legacy in the region. In fact, former L.A. County Supervisor Kenny Hahn is remembered favorably by 60 percent of Latino voters and unfavorably by just five percent (with the remainder too unfamiliar to rate him). He is seen even more favorably by Latinos 50 years of age or older, 68 percent to six percent.
Hahn also leads Richardson in every city within the district and holds a significant advantage in the three most populous geographical areas, which account for 60 percent of the district: the Los Angeles portion (leading by 22 points), the city of Carson (+25), and predominantly Latino South Gate (+50).
Hahn is the prime beneficiary of Hall’s departure. Over half (52 percent) of Hall’s voters move to Hahn, while a lower 35 percent choose Richardson and 13 percent are uncertain. Richardson even fails to get out front of Hahn in Hall’s home base of the City of Compton and with African American voters without Hall in the race.
Hahn’s lead reflects that she is very well-liked in the district, with Hahn earning significantly higher favorable ratings than Richardson. Hahn is viewed favorably by nearly 60 percent of likely voters, while Richardson receives favorable reviews from just 37 percent. Among African Americans, Hahn has a higher favorable rating as well, at 74 percent (to Richardson’s 68 percent). Hahn also leads Richardson in areas that should be Richardson’s home base. In the portion of the district that Richardson currently represents in Congress, Hahn leads by 11 points, 43 percent to 32 percent. In the portion of the district that Richardson previously represented in the State Assembly, Hahn holds an overwhelming 33-point lead (55 percent to 22 percent).
The results show that Janice Hahn is in a strong position to defeat Laura Richardson and win the election in the 44th Congressional District.