Rest assured, there is a Holy Grail. And for those of us that gamble on—uh, I mean watch NFL football, it’s the “Trap Game.” (For confused readers, a Holy Grail is something that is more important than a Crystal Skull but less important than an Ark. I’m glad I could help clear that up.) Predicting a trap game can be profitable because you’re not just looking at an underdog covering but winning outright. And if that underdog was the Cleveland Browns at home on a Monday night against the undefeated Giants, well then you hit it out of the park. But if you thought that underdog was going to be the mighty Lions of Detroit, well then you just lost money. Not every David v Goliath is a trap game—first, for your benefit I’ll clearly define what a trap game is, and then I’ll provide some clear signs that might help point the way. If you look for the signs, and guess right, then you just might score off the next Giants over Patriots.
First: A trap game has to be a good team against a bad team
You’re not a genius just because you guessed right in Niners/Seahawks. They’re both terrible. And it’s not a trap game just because it’s a tough game: Colts/Patriots can’t be a trap game, it’s a rivalry game. Big difference.
A true trap game is when a team should win, by a lot, and yet suddenly, inexplicably, they don’t.
Sign #1: Beware the home underdog
I once talked with a guy in a bar who had only one betting strategy: bet on home underdogs early in the season. It’s not fool-proof, but this is a pretty good strategy. Later in the season, teams get beaten-down and have checked out. Even with the home crowd, few underdogs can muscle the strength of character to really go all the way.
But early on at home? In front of your own fans, when every team still thinks they can make the playoffs? Well, that’s when bad teams play their hearts out. And for anybody with money on the favorite, on the road, that idea should be terrifying.
Even if you look at it from the favorite’s point of view, it’s still true. Long road trips are not easy or fun. In fact, the longer the trip, the more it takes out of a team. Mostly you just want to go home. Or if you’re playing in Miami, you have spent the last 18 hours in South Beach. Either way, teams rarely play their best out of their element.
Sign#2 Look for a big game the following week
There are games that from Week 1 are circled on a team’s calendar. And if you’ve got that big game coming in just 7 days, it might be easy to get distracted. And suddenly you’re down by 2 scores to the Chiefs because you were thinking about the Titans next week.
Last season’s biggest (almost-)trap game was undefeated New England, on Monday Night, playing at Baltimore. The Pats’ next game? The Pittsburgh Steelers. Is it possible that New England was thinking about the last real challenge to their undefeated season so much that the Ravens were able to sneak up on them? Yes. In fact that game represents a lot of these rules, including…
Sign #3 Underdogs play harder in big games
Nationally televised games bring out the best in underdogs. This is their moment to shine. Whether they’re playing for pride or their next contract, when the country is watching, watch out. And when that game is the Super Bowl, well then you have the making of an all-time upset: just ask the 18-1 Patriots. Which is important because…
Sign #4 Follow the money
It’s a pretty well-known tactic in fantasy football to look for guys in contract years because they can smell the cash waiting for them if they have a big game. This is true in the playoffs for the good teams, but also true towards the end of the regular season for the cellar-dwellers. This is even true in high school guys looking for scholarships, and college guys looking to get drafted. Bottom line, motivation is a big factor, and money is a big motivator. If you are a good team, and you’re playing a team of 11 guys without guaranteed money next year, be afraid. (Quick sidenote- This is also what makes the 4th preseason game so fun. Commissioner Goodell, I know you want more regular season games but don’t you dare take away that 4th preseason game away from me. By the 2nd half of that game, there are 25 guys on each team that will either be making $300k this year or moving back in with their mom by the next day. You better believe they play some of the hardest football imaginable. I know where you live and I’ve seen where you sleep and I swear on everything that is holy that I will make you cry if you take that game away from me. That is all.)
Sign #5 Revenge can be a good (or bad) thing
Mike Shanahan still hates the Raiders. They will always have a bullseye on them to him. It doesn’t matter that it’s been years since they’ve had a winning team, Shanahan and the Broncos will never fall into the trap against the Raiders because they want to crush them. But if Joey Porter and the Dolphins were underdogs hosting Pittsburgh, you better believe that he (and his team) will be more dangerous than ever.
Sign#6 Look at the injury reports
The Seahawks will be underdogs for the rest of the year. And with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck slinging it everywhere, they just might sneak up on somebody. But with Seneca Wallace under center? It doesn’t matter how much teams look past them, these Seahawks aren’t threatening. (By the way, there are plenty of guys that have 2 first names for their full name, but how many guys have 2 last names? I mean ‘Seneca Wallace’? That sounds like a bipartisan Senate Bill the Seneca-Wallace Health Care Plan or the Brady-Quinn Education Bill. In other words, if you’re not sure whether you’re watching NFL Network or CSPAN, don’t bet on the underdog.)
In Week 6 when Seattle was hosting Green Bay, it could have been a perfect trap game. Holmgren’s revenge, in Seattle, early in the year? That’s a hat-trick of Trap Game. And with Hasselbeck, I seriously considered the Seahawks to cover; but when Charlie Frye started, Green Bay couldn’t have been favored by enough.
Sign#7 It’s all about heart
Trap games aren’t 12-10 losses, they are 35-14 losses. It’s defenses that don’t stop the run, and offenses that don’t pick up 3rd downs. And if that sounds a lot like the first half of the Chargers season each of these last 2 years, well then you’ll know why I’m not going to go to any Charger games until Wk 9 next year…unless they host a Halloween game, when the cheerleaders wear costumes. I will be there for that. With a telephoto lens. (Seriously, Best game of the year!)
Sign #8 The embarrassment factor
By definition you are going out on a limb to pick this upset, but if you can’t come up with any reasons to defend your pick you should think twice. It’s bad enough to lose money, but it’s mortifying to lose money because you bet on the Lions. But if you can say things like Well if they can get pressure on Brady… or Arrowhead is a tough place to play and Larry Johnson can run all over the Broncos… then you might be on to something.
Again it’s important to note that there is not a trap game every week. If you look too hard one might stand out, but don’t force it. Yes Washington was playing at Detroit, followed by a huge matchup against Pittsburgh on Monday night football, but Detroit really is that bad and cannot be trusted to pull off an upset. Ever.
We’ve only had three successful trap games this season (Week 9 Jacksonville at Cincinnati, Week 4 Denver at KC, and the previously mentioned Week 6 NYG at Cleveland.) Sure, the Arizona Cardinals are going to Seattle this weekend. And sure the following weekend the Cardinals have a huge game against the Giants. And early reports have Matt Hasselbeck rejoining the team this weekend. And with Holmgren gone after this year, most guys on the team are going to play hard because they are auditioning for next year’s team. And su—actually, I’ve gotta go call my bookie.