{"id":3614,"date":"2009-07-01T05:29:00","date_gmt":"2009-07-01T05:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lbpost.com\/articles\/sports\/couch-commentary-moneyball-was-wrong\/"},"modified":"2009-07-01T05:29:00","modified_gmt":"2009-07-01T05:29:00","slug":"couch-commentary-moneyball-was-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/couch-commentary-moneyball-was-wrong","title":{"rendered":"Couch Commentary: Moneyball Was Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--StartFragment-->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Just days before shooting was set to begin on the movie adaption of Moneyball, Columbia Pictures have shelved the project.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Rumor has it that Columbia pulled the plug after director Steven Soderbergh turned in a rewritten script substantially different than an earlier draft.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">There\u2019s definitely something fitting about the project ending this way.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Back in 2003 when Moneyball the book first came out, it was a simpler time in baseball\u2014 players could take female fertility drugs to their heart\u2019s desire.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>But now?<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Now the story looks different, flawed.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Again it seems fitting that it goes out this way: Moneyball is being re-written and we don\u2019t like what it ended up as.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">The sales pitch of Moneyball was \u201cto find skills that other teams undervalued\u201d, which in 2003 meant looking for walks and home runs.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>And at the time, it was revolutionary.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Wait, walks are as good as singles?<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>I did <em>not<\/em><span style=\"font-style:normal\"> know that.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">But in hindsight, Moneyball was based on lies and bad strategy.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>It wasn\u2019t just predicated on being a good way to get a cheap team, it was predicated on steroids.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cPower can be acquired,\u201d Billy Beane said \u201cGood hitters develop power.\u201d<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Well in the Bay Area in the late 90s, they did.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>You\u2019ve got a guy that only walks, strikeouts, or hits it to the warning track?<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Send him to Oakland and he\u2019ll hit 40 homers.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>But here\u2019s the thing: even in Balco\u2019s heyday, the A\u2019s never did anything in the postseason.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Two MVPs, three Rookies of the Year, and yet they only got one Postseason series victory.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>You know why?<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Because hoping for two walks and a three-run home run is not good Postseason baseball.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>It may work in August against the Orioles, but in October against the Yankees it won\u2019t.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Beane\u2019s A\u2019s weren\u2019t the first, or last, team to overvalue the home run because we as fans have overvalued it for nearly a century.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">That first fix, the freebie that got us hooked, was Ruth.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>And Mantle and Mays took it to the next level.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>By the time Sammy and Big Mac came around we were ready to break into our mom\u2019s house and pawn our principles just to get that high again.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Ever since we saw how far one man could hit a baseball, we have been dying to see someone hit it further.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Even at the expense of the true point of the game.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>But I want to be clear that this isn\u2019t another indictment on steroids.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>They are clearly much more of a symptom than the disease.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Steroids, like corked bats and short right field porches, were just another way to ensure more home runs.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Home runs are like slam dunks\u2014 when they come in the natural course of the game they are spectacular.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>And even when we gather for All-Star breaks and set up contests for them, that is fantastic too.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>But when the game becomes about them, when we forsake fundamentals for the highlight, then not only do home runs become overrated, they become dangerous to the game.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">It\u2019s been 6 years since Moneyball came out.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>That was before we all became embarrassed by our home run records but it was immediately after the (small-ball) Angels won the World Series.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>It was the year the (small-ball) Florida Marlins won it all.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>It was right in the middle of the Yankees changing from a perennial contender (5 World Series appearances in 6 years) to an also-ran (1 World Series appearance in the next 7 years,) not surprisingly they were also changing from small-ball team to a basher lineup.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>When the Yankees won it all in 1996 they hit 162 regular season home runs, from 2002-2004 they averaged 232 homers.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Meanwhile the Angels hit 152 the year they won it and the Marlins hit 157 the year they did.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Sensing a trend?<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Chone Figgins, the definition of a little-ball player and quintessential Angel, recently called going first to third on a single was \u201cthe most important thing a player can do\u201d.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Because when a guy is on third, the pitcher has to worry about passed balls.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Suddenly most guys\u2019 best pitch, their \u201cout\u201d pitch, is off-limits because he doesn\u2019t want to wild-pitch a run in.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>This kind of mentality- getting into the pitcher\u2019s head and taking away his best stuff is what guys like Figgins do best.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>They can do it on third and they can do it on first when the pitcher\u2019s more worried about them stealing then the guy at the plate.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Sacrificing, stealing, going 1st to 3rd, these are the things that Championship teams do.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>They manufacture runs in the postseason because Home Runs and Walks are harder to come by when the competition gets better. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Ok I\u2019m going to try and rein in my stat-nerdness, but here\u2019s something to think about<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">&#8211; In the last 10 years, no team that has won the World Series also led the league in home runs<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">&#8211; None of those Champions even lead postseason teams in regular season homers<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">&#8211; Only 3 of the last 7 Champs were even Top-10 HR teams<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">&#8211; In fact, during those last 7 years, every season has had at least one team in the bottom ten in home runs make the postseason- including \u201905, \u201906, and \u201907 when multiple bottom-10 teams made the postseason.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Think about that- could one of the ten worst teams in ERA make the postseason?<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Could multiple ones?<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>How insignificant are home runs that (multiple) teams that don\u2019t hit them still make the playoffs. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">&#8211; In 2006 as many postseason teams finished in the bottom-10 (3) in home runs as finished in the top-10.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">This all should just serve as a reminder that the long ball does not equal success.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Moneyball did usher in an era of stat-driven GMs, which ultimately has been a boost for the game.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>So ultimately the Oakland A\u2019s methods serve as the legacy, while the actual stats they were concerned with have largely been ignored.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Oakland\u2019s success during these years, or lack there of, has changed the A\u2019s legacy and Moneyball\u2019s with it.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>But more A-Rod, and Bonds, and McGwire, and Giambi, these guys changed the legacy of the whole era.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">One leak from Columbia had Soderbergh, of Ocean\u2019s Eleven fame, making Moneyball into what some called a Ballpark Eleven- basically a comedic adventure about smart guys pulling a fast one on all of baseball, hence the casting of Brad Pitt and Demetri Martin.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Maybe a few years ago this becomes a fun sport movie, but now this concept seems less and less believable.<span style=\"mso-spacerun:yes\">\u00a0 <\/span>Which might explain why Soderbergh suddenly began trying to add an element of truth to the movie by suggesting a mixture of Pitt\/Martin high-jinks with real-life baseball interviews\/documentary.<span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>And suddenly Columbia Pictures saw their fun time rained on by real-life; now they know what it\u2019s like to be a baseball fan.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\u00a0<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p>  <!--EndFragment--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Leaky Pipes thinks the home run is overrated, and it&#8217;s all Brad Pitt&#8217;s fault, or something like that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","inline_featured_image":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":"","_":"","_author_alias":"","cap-aim":"","cap-description":"","cap-display_name":"","cap-first_name":"","cap-jabber":"","cap-last_name":"","cap-linked_account":"","cap-newspack_employer":"","cap-newspack_job_title":"","cap-newspack_phone_number":"","cap-newspack_role":"","cap-user_email":"","cap-user_login":"","cap-website":"","cap-yahooim":"","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_email_html":"","newspack_email_type":"","newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_hide_page_title":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_show_share_buttons":"","newspack_sponsor_byline_prefix":"","newspack_sponsor_disclaimer_override":"","newspack_sponsor_flag_override":"","newspack_sponsor_only_direct":"","newspack_sponsor_url":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_show_updated_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-3614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3614"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=3614"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lbpost.com\/sports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=3614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}