<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
Rest assured, there is a Holy Grail. <\/span>And for those of us that gamble on—uh, I mean watch<\/i><\/span> NFL football, it’s the “Trap Game.” <\/span>(For confused readers, a Holy Grail is something that is more important than a Crystal Skull but less important than an Ark. <\/span>I’m glad I could help clear that up.) <\/span>Predicting a trap game can be profitable because you’re not just looking at an underdog covering but winning outright. <\/span>And if that underdog was the Cleveland Browns at home on a Monday night against the undefeated Giants, well then you hit it out of the park. <\/span>But if you thought that underdog was going to be the mighty Lions of Detroit, well then you just lost money. Not every David v Goliath is a trap game—first, for your benefit I’ll clearly define what a trap game is, and then I’ll provide some clear signs that might help point the way. <\/span>If you look for the signs, and guess right, then you just might score off the next Giants over Patriots.<\/span><\/p>\n First: <\/span>A trap game has to be a good team against a bad team<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n You’re not a genius just because you guessed right in Niners\/Seahawks. They’re both terrible. <\/span>And it’s not a trap game just because it’s a tough game: Colts\/Patriots can’t be a trap game, it’s a rivalry game. <\/span>Big difference.<\/span><\/p>\n A true trap game is when a team should win, by a lot, and yet suddenly, inexplicably, they don’t. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Sign #1: Beware the home underdog<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n I once talked with a guy in a bar who had only one betting strategy: bet on home underdogs early in the season. <\/span>It’s not fool-proof, but this is a pretty good strategy. <\/span>Later in the season, teams get beaten-down and have checked out. <\/span>Even with the home crowd, few underdogs can muscle the strength of character to really go all the way. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n But early on at home? <\/span>In front of your own fans, when every team still thinks they can make the playoffs? <\/span>Well, that’s when bad teams play their hearts out. <\/span>And for anybody with money on the favorite, on the road, that idea should be terrifying.<\/span><\/p>\n Even if you look at it from the favorite’s point of view, it’s still true. Long road trips are not easy or fun. <\/span>In fact, the longer the trip, the more it takes out of a team. <\/span>Mostly you just want to go home. <\/span>Or if you’re playing in Miami, you have spent the last 18 hours in South Beach. <\/span>Either way, teams rarely play their best out of their element. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Sign#2 Look for a big game the following week<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n There are games that from Week 1 are circled on a team’s calendar. <\/span>And if you’ve got that big game coming in just 7 days, it might be easy to get distracted. <\/span>And suddenly you’re down by 2 scores to the Chiefs because you were thinking about the Titans next week. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Last season’s biggest (almost-)trap game was undefeated New England, on Monday Night, playing at Baltimore. <\/span>The Pats’ next game? <\/span>The Pittsburgh Steelers. <\/span>Is it possible that New England was thinking about the last real challenge to their undefeated season so much that the Ravens were able to sneak up on them? Yes. <\/span>In fact that game represents a lot of these rules, including…<\/span><\/p>\n Sign #3 Underdogs play harder in big games<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Nationally televised games bring out the best in underdogs. <\/span>This is their moment to shine. <\/span>Whether they’re playing for pride or their next contract, when the country is watching, watch out. <\/span>And when that game is the Super Bowl, well then you have the making of an all-time upset: just ask the 18-1 Patriots. <\/span>Which is important because…<\/span><\/p>\n Sign #4 Follow the money<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n It’s a pretty well-known tactic in fantasy football to look for guys in contract years because they can smell the cash waiting for them if they have a big game. <\/span>This is true in the playoffs for the good teams, but also true towards the end of the regular season for the cellar-dwellers. <\/span>This is even true in high school guys looking for scholarships, and college guys looking to get drafted. <\/span>Bottom line, motivation is a big factor, and money is a big motivator. <\/span>If you are a good team, and you’re playing a team of 11 guys without guaranteed money next year, be afraid. <\/span>(Quick sidenote- This is also what makes the 4th<\/sup> preseason game so fun. <\/span>Commissioner Goodell, I know you want more regular season games but don’t you dare take away that 4th<\/sup> preseason game away from me. <\/span>By the 2nd<\/sup> half of that game, there are 25 guys on each team that will either be making $300k this year or moving back in with their mom by the next day. <\/span>You better believe they play some of the hardest football imaginable. <\/span>I know where you live and I’ve seen where you sleep and I swear on everything that is holy that I will make you cry if you take that game away from me. <\/span>That is all.) <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Sign #5 Revenge can be a good (or bad) thing<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Mike Shanahan still hates the Raiders. <\/span>They will always have a bullseye on them to him. <\/span>It doesn’t matter that it’s been years since they’ve had a winning team, Shanahan and the Broncos will never fall into the trap against the Raiders because they want to crush them. <\/span>But if Joey Porter and the Dolphins were underdogs hosting Pittsburgh, you better believe that he (and his team) will be more dangerous than ever.<\/span><\/p>\n Sign#6 Look at the injury reports<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n The Seahawks will be underdogs for the rest of the year. <\/span>And with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck slinging it everywhere, they just might sneak up on somebody. <\/span>But with Seneca Wallace under center? <\/span>It doesn’t matter how much teams look past them, these Seahawks aren’t threatening. <\/span>(By the way, there are plenty of guys that have 2 first names for their full name, but how many guys have 2 last names? <\/span>I mean ‘Seneca Wallace’? <\/span>That sounds like a bipartisan Senate Bill the Seneca-Wallace Health Care Plan<\/i><\/span> or the Brady-Quinn Education Bill.<\/i><\/span> <\/span>In other words, if you’re not sure whether you’re watching NFL Network or CSPAN, don’t bet on the underdog.) <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n In Week 6 when Seattle was hosting Green Bay, it could have been a perfect trap game. <\/span>Holmgren’s revenge, in Seattle, early in the year? <\/span>That’s a hat-trick of Trap Game. <\/span>And with Hasselbeck, I seriously considered the Seahawks to cover; but when Charlie Frye started, Green Bay couldn’t have been favored by enough.<\/span><\/p>\n Sign#7 It’s all about heart <\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Trap games aren’t 12-10 losses, they are 35-14 losses. <\/span>It’s defenses that don’t stop the run, and offenses that don’t pick up 3rd<\/sup> downs. <\/span>And if that sounds a lot like the first half of the Chargers season each of these last 2 years, well then you’ll know why I’m not going to go to any Charger games until Wk 9 next year…unless they host a Halloween game, when the cheerleaders wear costumes. <\/span>I will be there for that. <\/span>With a telephoto lens. <\/span>(Seriously, Best game of the year!)<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n Sign #8 The embarrassment factor<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n By definition you are going out on a limb to pick this upset, but if you can’t come up with any reasons to defend your pick you should think twice. <\/span>It’s bad enough to lose money, but it’s mortifying to lose money because you bet on the Lions. <\/span>But if you can say things like Well if they can get pressure on Brady…<\/i><\/span> or Arrowhead is a tough place to play and Larry Johnson can run all over the Broncos…<\/i><\/span> then you might be on to something.<\/span><\/p>\n Again it’s important to note that there is not a trap game every week. <\/span>If you look too hard one might stand out, but don’t force it. <\/span>Yes Washington was playing at Detroit, followed by a huge matchup against Pittsburgh on Monday night football, but Detroit really is that bad and cannot be trusted to pull off an upset. <\/span>Ever. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n We’ve only had three successful trap games this season (Week 9 Jacksonville at Cincinnati, Week 4 Denver at KC, and the previously mentioned Week 6 NYG at Cleveland.) <\/span>Sure, the Arizona Cardinals are going to Seattle this weekend. <\/span>And sure the following weekend the Cardinals have a huge game against the Giants. <\/span>And early reports have Matt Hasselbeck rejoining the team this weekend. <\/span>And with Holmgren gone after this year, most guys on the team are going to play hard because they are auditioning for next year’s team. <\/span>And su—actually, I’ve gotta go call my bookie. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In his weekly column, Ryan Thies breaks down how to bet on the perfect trap game. 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