As they pleaded for people to avoid gathering for Thanksgiving, health officials said the coronavirus is so widespread locally that one out of every 145 people in Los Angeles County is likely infectious with COVID-19.
“This does not include people that are currently hospitalized or isolated at home. This is the estimated number of people who are out and about and infecting others,” Dr. Christina Ghaly, director for the LA County Department of Health Services, said during a Wednesday afternoon media briefing.
If 10 families have Thanksgiving gatherings of 15 people each, it’s likely one of those family meals “turned into an opportunity for COVID-19 to spread,” Ghaly said.
She also emphasized that the coronavirus is most often spread by people who have no idea they have the virus.
She cited a Centers for Disease Control study finding that 59% of infections are caused by people who aren’t showing symptoms yet or never show them over the course of their illness.
“That’s an incredibly high number,” Ghaly said.
Ghaly cited the one-in-145 number during a briefing on a model her department uses to estimate how widespread the coronavirus is based on current infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The estimate was up from one in 250 just a week ago.
She warned that if the infection rate continues to increase at the current rate, hospitals and intensive care units could start seeing bed shortages in the next two to four weeks.
However, she said, it’s difficult to determine if the infection rate will continue to rise because what’s happening now reflects people’s behavior from two weeks earlier due to the virus’ 14-day incubation period.
Nevertheless, LA County health officials reported another large number of new infections on Wednesday: 4,311, which brought the average five-day caseload up to 4,273.
Deaths, too, have been increasing with 49 reported Wednesday and 51 on Thursday, which was the highest total since September.
Health officials did not say when they would institute a new, modified stay-at-home order—something they’ve been promising to do for days. They said they are still answering questions about the proposed order and hope to give businesses and residents a few days notice before it goes into effect.