When Republican Evelyn Robertson failed to qualify for the ballot in the race to replace Laura Richardson for the 55th Assembly District, she may have unknowingly left Republicans with more voting power than they otherwise would have. Although Republican voters in the 55th district have no Republican candidate to vote for, there will be Republicans who exercise their right to vote.
Republicans will be able to vote in the Democratic Primary and likely choose the candidate who will represent the 55th Assembly District.
It is taboo within the Republican Party to even discuss the strategic significance of Republicans influencing the Democratic Primary—even when the odds of Republican victory are low. The demographic registration in the district is 57% Democrat to 24% Republican.
So the question is: will Republicans stay home, or will they flex their vote in a meaningful way for the first time in many years?
The reasons for staying home are strong. This is a little noticed special election, without any other larger state or federal election to turn out the vote. The biggest reason though, and the main reason I heard from Republicans who were staying home, was that there wasn’t much of a difference between Warren Furutani and Mike Gipson.
Furutani is endorsed by the California Democratic Party, a slew of Democratic politicians and clubs and almost all the standard Labor Unions that Republicans despise. He seems like the Democrats’ guy.
But Gipson also has a string of liberal Democratic endorsements like Congresswoman Richardson and other Democratic officials, as well as a few standard unions.
In the 37th Congressional Special Election Primary—the reason for this election—there were less than 2,000 votes separating Richardson from the 2nd place Oropeza, and that was with several Republicans in the race. The vote difference between first and second could be much smaller, and as many as 5,000 Republicans could go to the polls without any Republican to vote for.
So far, Gipson is considered the underdog, and I would have thought it a wise strategy for his campaign to go after these stray Republican votes. His message is “New Leadership” and stressing new politics, which is a message that would carry with many Republicans. The fact that the Democratic establishment seems to be behind Furutani would be enough for many to come out and vote for Gipson.
Yet, the only candidate to even mention the word Republican and to directly appeal to Republicans has been Furutani. Last week he sent out a mailer with a direct appeal to these lost Republicans, claiming Republican endorsements from LBCC Trustee Jeff Kellogg and Lakewood Mayor Diane Dubois, and establishing himself as the fiscally conservative candidate.
This isn’t to say that Gipson hasn’t been targeting Republicans, but it has been soft and through general mail, and so far the only Republican endorsement he claims is Sherriff Lee Baca.
Warren Furutani also claims Lee Baca as a Republican endorsement.
Who knows? It may split right down the middle, and again, because of unequal, gerrymandered districts, a Republican’s vote wasted.
Maybe…but maybe not.