Powerful, hurricane-charged waves may hit Southern California again this weekend, threatening further damage to beachfront homes and the public boardwalk on the Long Beach Peninsula, where crews haven’t had time to rebuild from the last major storm swell.
Hurricane Polo in the southern Pacific could produce tides of up to 7 feet in Long Beach, with waves between 4 and 6 feet, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service. The strongest conditions are expected around 9 a.m. on Monday and Tuesday before tapering off that evening.
Forecasters caution they won’t have a firm idea of the storm’s path until Thursday, but in a “worst-case scenario,” the swell could be similar to the one caused by Hurricane Marie, said Devin Black with the NWS. That storm sent waves crashing into the Peninsula, flooding streets, shattering portions of a wooden boardwalk and forcing evacuations at 19 coastline homes.
Whether Polo reaches that severity depends on how it travels. Black explained that weak steering currents in the atmosphere have some forecasting models showing the storm curving toward Mexico, while others show it tracking farther west — a scenario that would leave Southern California more exposed to swells.
At the right angle, those swells can pass through a gap in Long Beach’s breakwater and jetty, mostly hitting the Peninsula between 62nd and 69th places. Normally this stretch is protected by a reinforced sand berm meant to soften the blows the Peninsula takes from the waves. But Hurricane Marie stripped away so much sand from this area, officials say, that there’s no beachfront left to build it between 62nd and 69th. Because of the damage, “we can’t even get trucks down there to build out the berm,” said City Manager Tom Modica.
Crews will continue to reinforce the berm to the east and west of those cross streets.
City crews, with help from the Conservation Corps, are also replacing damaged sections of boardwalk with plywood while engineers assess its wooden seawall, which was left battered and exposed after waves punctured holes and left some hinges twisted.
Officials urge homeowners who received sandbags after Marie to keep them in place through this weekend and the winter, when strong waves and flooding could be commonplace because of a supercharged El Niño.
“We are encouraging everyone to do what they need to to protect their private property,” Modica said, adding that the city will be offering more sandbags ahead of this weekend.
Modica said the city hasn’t yet decided whether to issue evacuation orders for homes. “Depends on where the activity is, and what hits, and what the conditions are,” he said. “We will take that kind of as the situation progresses.”
A report due out next week will assess the condition of the city’s seawall, lay out short-term solutions ahead of winter and sketch potential long-term plans for the coastline. Modica said he also hopes to release next week the costs already incurred from Hurricane Marie along with rough estimates for repairs.
The longer-term challenge is restoring the sand stripped from the shoreline.
In light of the coming winter season, the city says it wants to expedite its $9.75 million dredging project that would pull roughly 415,000 cubic yards of sediment from the Alamitos Bay channel to extend the beach by about 260 feet. Expected to start in late October, Modica said he’s hoping to quicken the pace if “even by a few days.”
“We are working to see what we can do to accelerate it as much as possible, if we can get any additional sand,” Modica said, adding that the city is also considering whether future phases could add to that work.
The Long Beach City Council is anticipated to ratify a local emergency order on Tuesday in response to the ongoing threat of El Niño. Modica initiated the process this week, saying one was needed ahead of a “really tough season.”
The declaration does not close streets or trigger evacuations on its own. Instead, it allows the city to bypass standard procurement and contracting timelines so it can stockpile sandbags, hire additional crews and equipment, and strike agreements with outside agencies without waiting for council approval at each step.
The order also allows Modica to spend up to $1 million through emergency contracts, with his spending reported to the City Council every two weeks. Modica said he’s already eyeing purchases for more sand for sandbags, along with building materials, outside crews for work such as tree removal, and rented water pumps for low-lying intersections across the city. Larger reconstruction projects, he said, would go through the city’s standard contracting and bidding process.
Long Beach’s declaration follows a similar one from Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose office has warned that changing ocean dynamics and El Niño conditions spurred by climate change could bring severe rain, flooding, and taller tides to the region. Forecasters have placed strong odds on a very powerful El Niño this year, with roughly a two-thirds chance it reaches historic strength by year’s end, a threshold that would surpass every event recorded since 1950.