In the last three weeks, the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus has gone from no recorded cases to multiple recorded cases in 32 states and at least 77 nations, according to the World Health Organization.
The variant is particularly worrisome because it is both highly transmissible and apparently capable, in some cases, of breaking through current vaccines.
Long Beach announced its first case of omicron, in someone who had recently traveled internationally, on Dec. 7. Ten days later, on Dec. 17, the city announced its first case of community-spread case of the omicron variant.
To be clear, there are far fewer COVID-19 cases in Long Beach hospitals right now than at this time last year, according to the city’s COVID-19 dashboard.
No one at this time last year was vaccinated, while today, city officials say 68.8 percent of all residents aged five years old and up are fully vaccinated.
Still, omicron is spreading around the world “at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Dec. 14.
Even if infections remain mild, such a vast increase in cases could still overwhelm hospitals.
There’s a lot about omicron we still don’t know, including if such an alarming increase in cases will happen here, but we can break down what we do know.
How serious is omicron when compared to delta and other variants?
It’s very serious, according to UC Irvine epidemiologist Dr. Andrew Noymer. “It’s very transmissible,” said Noymer—far more so than any of the previous COVID-19 variants that became dominant.
Noymer said that, so far, omicron is out-competing delta, the current dominant COVID-19 variant, at a faster rate than delta out-competed the earlier alpha variant. “That’s extremely concerning,” he said.
How concerned is the city over omicron?
Long Beach health officials say that though COVID-19 case numbers have been fairly stable, unlike last winter, they are still higher than they were over the summer, and the city is currently undergoing “substantial community spread of COVID-19.” The city fully expects that the omicron variant will lead to an increase in cases, “which could worsen an already expected winter surge.”
There are reports that omicron mostly leads to “mild” infections. Is this true?
That remains to be seen, according to Noymer. While Noymer is confident in saying that omicron doesn’t seem to be more severe than delta, he also noted that hospitalization surges are happening where omicron supersedes delta as the dominant variant.
“Enough people are going to get omicron that we’ll see an increase in hospitalizations in Southern California,” Noymer said.
To be clear, what constitutes a “mild” COVID-19 infection?
All this means is that people who are infected will see a less severe profile of symptoms. And that means fewer hospitalizations per thousand cases, according to Noymer.
Are people with just one J&J shot or two Pfizer/Moderna shots still considered “fully vaccinated?”
Technically, yes, said Noymer, though his recommendation is to get a booster shot as soon as you’re eligible because apparently the available vaccines are substantially less effective against omicron when not boosted.
How protected are vaccinated people from catching the virus?
It looks like vaccinated people, especially if they haven’t received a booster shot, can get omicron. But there’s not a lot of good data on this, said Noymer. It’s also possible that vaccinated people can transmit the omicron variant.
Can people who have gotten booster shots still get infected?
Yes, though there’s evidence that they’ll fare a lot better, said Noymer. Omicron has evolved to be quite different from the original virus that the vaccines were designed for. But the booster does seem to keep people who are infected from developing serious symptoms and then having to go to the hospital.
“It’s the reduction in hospitalizations that we’re hopeful for,” said Noymer.
Because of its vastly increased transmissiblity and ability to break through vaccinations, will everyone eventually get omicron?
Noymer called that a “narrative” that, while gaining traction, is far from certain. Though he did say that, because of how deep the virus has spread throughout the world, it’s likely that, eventually, everyone will get COVID-19.
“Everyone’s going to get COVID-19 before they die,” said Noymer, whether it’s delta or omicron or nu or some new variant that emerges. “Everyone will get COVID.”
This sounds rather hopeless. Will the pandemic ever end?
“Not in the sense most people expect,” said Noymer. Instead, COVID-19 will eventually become endemic—just another virus we’ve come to live with.
“We’re not going back to 2019,” said Noymer. “COVID will be with us for decades, if not in perpetuity. It will be here this time next year, and this time the following year. It will become part of life. It used to be that you had to worry about the flu and the common cold. Now, you have to worry about the flu, the common cold and COVID.”
This doesn’t mean dealing with COVID-19 is hopeless—quite the opposite, in fact. It’s now more important than ever that people get tested, get vaccinated and get booster shots, if they’re eligible.
What about the possibility that people with “mild” infection can still get Long COVID, a rare condition in which some patients suffer from a wide range of debilitating symptoms for months or even years after first being infected?
It seems to be that way, said Noymer, though Long COVID remains rare. Still, scientists know very little about what causes Long COVID or how to treat it.
Right now many outdoor parklets in the city are gone, and restaurants are seating people indoors. Is this still OK?
California is in a good spot right now, Noymer said. While he doesn’t think people should cancel travel plans, Noymer said it’s more important than ever to get vaccinated, get a booster shot if you’re eligible and wear a mask when indoors.
“Hiding in the basement is not really called for,” Noymer said.
Though Noymer also said the state is also due for another wave of hospitalizations.
How close is Southern California to having a hospital crisis?
Noymer said he’s more worried about later in January than the next few weeks. “It’s going to take a few months to build.”
He estimates that hospitals in the state will see an increase in COVID cases by mid-January.
So what should people do if they get sick?
Get tested, especially if you’re experiencing symptoms associated with COVID—fever, chills, cough, body aches. Noymer recommends PCR tests for people who are symptomatic, because of the lower accuracy of at-home rapid tests.
“They should stay at home,” Noymer added. People who are sick should stop going out, seeing people, going to holiday parties and so forth. If their symptoms become severe, they should seek medical care.
“It’s the same advice I would have given four weeks ago,” said Noymer, though getting tested is extremely important right now, because it gives scientists a handle on the extent of omicron’s spread.
Where can people get tested and vaccinated?
A full list of city-run vaccination and test sites are available online. The lists are updated monthly or as needed, according to Long Beach Health Department spokeswoman Jennifer Rice Epstein.
“Anyone who wants a vaccine can get their initial series and/or booster within minutes of making their decision,” said Epstein. “We are prepared to expand sites if demand exceeds the capacity at our existing sites.”
Is the city still distributing masks to the community? What about at-home tests?
The city has distributed 370,000 surgical and N95 masks since March 2020 to skilled nursing facilities, businesses and community members, according to Epstein. The city is also currently distributing 2.7 million masks for children.
City health officials also say they’re “ramping up an effort to distribute more than 10,000 rapid tests to providers, community-based organizations, libraries, health centers, organizations that provide services to people experiencing homelessness, faith-based organizations, skilled nursing facilities, assisted-living facilities and food pantries to ensure rapid tests are readily available in the community.”
The city authorized booster shots for 16- and 17-year-olds the other day. Los Angeles County has long had an indoor mask mandate in place. What other things can the city do, should omicron cases really start to rise here?
This week the city instituted a new rule on mega events—events with at least 1,000 attendees inside per day or at least 10,000 attendees outside per day. Now, going to these events requires either proof of fully vaccinated status or a negative COVID-19 rapid test taken within one day of the event or a negative PCR test taken two days before the event. This applies for everyone 2 years old and up.