County officials on Wednesday painted a dire picture of the situation facing hospitals—and warned that more devastating times are ahead, with the region’s medical system “under siege.”
On a day when the county reported its highest death total yet from the COVID-19 pandemic—138 people died in a single day, including Long Beach—officials said the surge in new cases has led to a critical situation at hospitals.
There are now 4,656 COVID-19 patients currently admitted, at least the second day in a row that number has risen by about 200. About 21% of those patients, or roughly 978, are being treated in intensive-care units.
County Health Services Director Christina Ghaly said hospitals are now averaging about 600 coronavirus admissions per day, up from about 500 last week. Based on current trends, hospitals could be admitting anywhere from 750 to 1,350 new COVID admissions per day by the end of December, she said.
“Our hospitals are under siege, and our model shows no end in sight,” Ghaly said, adding, “The worst is still before us.”
Ghaly reported that as of Wednesday, the county—which has about 10 million residents—had a total of 102 available and staffed ICU beds, and 814 general hospital beds. The county’s 70 “911-receiving” hospitals have a combined total licensed capacity of about 2,500 ICU beds. Hospitals last week were operating a daily average of about 10,360 non-ICU beds.
The daily number of ICU and standard hospital beds operating in the county varies based on staffing available to treat patients in them.
Ghaly said that at the anticipated pace of hospital admissions, demand for ICU space could exceed the county’s 2,500-bed licensed capacity by as many as 1,000 patients within a month.
According to the state, the ICU capacity in the 11-county Southern California region dropped to 0.5% on Wednesday.
“There is simply a limit to the number of people who can safely receive intensive care services in our hospitals at any one time, even after everything has been done to expand the capacity and expand the ICUs,” Ghaly said, stressing that hospital staffing cannot keep up with the projected patient demand.
“The problem is not physical space. Setting up overflow capacity in non-hospital settings will not solve this problem,” she said.
According to the county, the local transmission rate for COVID-19—the average number of people each COVID-positive person infects with the virus—is now 1.2, up from 1.16 a week ago. Anytime the rate is above 1, case numbers are projected to grow.
The county also estimates that one of every 80 residents not hospitalized or in quarantine/isolation is infected with the virus, likely without knowing it or showing any symptoms, yet still capable of infecting others.
Ghaly issued a warning for residents across the county who continue to resist public health protocols such as staying home, wearing masks and practicing physical distancing.
“If you don’t do everything possible to minimize spread (of the virus), then you are contributing to the spread and prolonging the amount of time in which our hospitals have more patients … than they an safely handle,” she said.
“The consequences of this will affect anyone and everyone who needs hospital-level care. It’s not just those with COVID. It will impact people who have a heart attack or a stroke and need services. Those who are in a car accident and need surgery. Those who have newly diagnosed cancer and need immediately chemotherapy in an in-patient setting.”
Ghaly and Barbara Ferrer, director of the county Department of Public Health, both issued pleas for residents to re-think holiday plans that involve travel or gatherings with friends and family from different households. Ferrer noted that the current county surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths is a direct result of people ignoring health warnings over the Thanksgiving holiday, and warned that piling a Christmas surge on top of that will be catastrophic for the hospital system.
“We have learned a hard and painful lesson from our actions over Thanksgiving,” Ferrer said. “Please, let’s not repeat the same mistakes as we move into our next holiday season.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom noted Tuesday that the strain on hospital staffing across California prompted the state to temporarily lower the required staffing requirements in ICU units, from the normal one staffer for every two patients, down to one staffer for every three patients.
The state also amended its quarantine requirements for health care workers exposed to the virus, lowering the mandate to just seven days, assuming the worker tests negative for the virus on day five or later of the quarantine.
The Southern California region—which covers Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Imperial, Inyo, Mono, San Bernardino, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties—is under a state-imposed regional stay-at- home order that bars gatherings of people from different households.
The order will remain in effect until at least Dec. 28.