Minutes after declaring a health emergency due to a probable case of swine flu found in a CSULB student (who is currently recovering), Long Beach City Health Officer Dr. Helene Calvet, M.D. found time to answer a few questions.
Dr. Calvet expressed an urge to keep calm, but explained that the emergency declaration was necessary in order to “create a sense of urgency” about a virus that has never been seen before. The difference with this version of swine flu, Dr. Calvet says, is that it is a combination of different viruses that have come together. She estimates that there will be no vaccine for this particular strain for about six months.
If the virus continues to progress as is projected, she says, as much as 25-30% of the population could become ill. This is not a worst-case scenario, but a practical estimate if the illness were to become a pandemic. Currently, she says, that looks to be the case. Dr. Calvet stressed that she does not mean to say that 25-30% of the population would require hospitalization, but that 25-30% would be ill enough to stay home from work or school.
Dr. Calvet explained that several other CSULB students are being examined, and that closing the university was discussed although no such action has yet been taken. So far, only one student has even been diagnosed with a “probable” case of swine flu, although Dr. Calvet points out that 95% of probable cases have been confirmed.
“This is the hardest we’ve worked in ten years,” she said.
Dr. Calvet did point out that the normal flu season causes many people to fall ill, some even gravely so, but says that this version of swine flu may be more dangerous because it is a new type that has never been seen before. Still, she stressed that people should remain calm and take necessary precautions.
By Ryan ZumMallen, Managing Editor