New projections released by COVID-19 researchers Wednesday showed that the pandemic that has killed over 4.7 million people worldwide could decline dramatically in the United States by March, the two-year mark of when it began to affect daily life in the country.

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub released four scenarios that account for whether vaccinations are approved for children between ages 5 and 11, and whether a new, more transmissible variant is discovered in the next six months. The projections provide a bit of optimism for a country that has been ravaged by the pandemic, but researchers involved in the project remain cautious.

This is the ninth round of projections put out by the team of researchers since the beginning of the year and those projections have had varying accuracy in predicting trends in COVID-19 infections.

Early results have shown the the Pfizer vaccine has produced immune responses in children 5 years and older and the company could pursue approval for its vaccine to be given to children in the coming months. The model projected a Nov 1. start date for child vaccinations with a similar increase seen after the Pfizer vaccine was approved for children between 12 and 17 years old.

In the scenario where childhood vaccinations take off and no new variant is discovered, daily case-counts in the country could drop to 9,055 by March 12, 2022. The US recorded about 20,728 daily cases the week of Sept. 11, the last observed data point in the model.

Under this scenario, which the researchers believe to be the most likely, daily deaths would also drop from about 1,626 nationally to about 60 nationwide. In California, daily deaths would drop from about 96 people per day to two.

Projections released from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Wednesday show that infection rates could dramatically decrease in the United States by March 2022.

In the opposite scenario, where vaccines are not approved for wider use and a more contagious variant begins circulating, the model shows that cases could still decline but the country could still average 66,787 cases per day.

While the projections suggest that cases will decline nationally, researchers involved in the project say there is some nuance, especially with fluctuations in human behavior and a virus that has shown the ability to mutate into far more transmissible versions of itself.

Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina who helps run the modeling hub, said there will likely be differences state to state.

“Though cases are expected to fall quickly in the states that have seen the largest Delta waves (Louisiana, Florida, etc.) but could continue to increase in the states that are yet to be hit hard,” Lessler wrote on Twitter. “Major changes in conditions, such as a new variant or unexpected changes in behavior could lead to significant deviations from projections. Hence, they should not be seen as forecasts, but as useful planning scenarios.”

The declines could be much more gradual in California, where 70% of the state’s population has already received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, but the state could have significantly fewer daily cases than it has recorded over the past few months.

The state was averaging about 8,146 daily cases on the week of Sept. 11 and could get to about 400 daily cases, according to the model’s projections that include no new variant and younger children becoming eligible to be vaccinated.

When the state’s economy reopened in mid-June, the state’s daily case count was about 944.

Even under the model’s worst case projection, which includes a new more transmissible variant and no new vaccine authorizations for younger children, the state’s daily case count is projected to drop to about 2,747 infections.

After seeing a spike in daily case rates due to the spread of the delta variant, Long Beach’s case numbers have declined in recent weeks, dropping from a high of 38 cases per 100,000 residents in late August to just under 22 cases per 100,000 residents as of Tuesday, according to data published by the city.

Jason Ruiz covers City Hall and politics for the Long Beach Post. Reach him at [email protected] or @JasonRuiz_LB on Twitter.