The daily total of new COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County this week will be crucial for the ability of businesses to stay open—in some cases, it could determine whether they shut their doors for good.

“If we close again, we don’t have any money for rent and living expenses,” Susie Hem, a hairdresser at Leng Beauty Salon in Cambodia Town, said Sunday. As tightened coronavirus restrictions were handed down over the weekend, she and others worried their livelihoods could be the next ones at risk of being closed.

Restaurants and bars were the first to be afflicted with new orders to shut down all in-person service. As of 10 p.m. Wednesday, these businesses—already struggling from the shutdown in March and ensuing limits on capacity—will be relegated to takeout and delivery only.

The county warned last week this was coming if new daily coronavirus cases averaged more than 4,000 over five days, which occurred on Sunday.

If the county averages 4,500 cases over five days, all nonessential businesses—including hair and nail salons—get shuttered as well.

How close are we to that threshold?

The total cases for the previous four days is now 16,543, so the county would have to log 5,957 new cases today in order to trigger a blanket stay-at-home order.

Given that cases are typically low on Sunday and Monday due to reporting lags, that seems unlikely—at least for now.

And as long as Monday and Tuesday average under 5,494 new cases each day, LA County would avoid the fuller shutdown. If either day hits that threshold, it would be a new record after last Thursday’s total of 5,031 cases—an unlikely, but possible, scenario.

A matter of survival

While restaurants will be closed for the next three weeks regardless of the five-day averages, other businesses including personal care services—like the salon Hem works at in Cambodia Town—are hoping the numbers will flatten or decrease.

In some cases, their livelihoods depend on it. Hem said the rent at the store where she works is more than $1,800 per month. She said the owner applied for grants totalling up to $1,500, but that’s still not enough.

Susie Hem cuts hair for a customer at the Leng Beauty Salon on Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. Photo by Crystal Niebla.

Hem’s workplace just reopened in October after having shut down in March.

“Now if they [make us] close, I don’t have much to say,” Hem said.

Others are in a similar bind.

Nail technician Leakhena “Sam” Keo has seen a slow trickle of clientele in the Pro Spa Nail & Hair salon in West Long Beach since reopening in September. To survive, she said, she collected unemployment benefits and the business had to dig into its savings and negotiate a payment plan with the landlord to pay their $1,500 monthly rent.

Leakhena “Sam” Keo trims fall nails of a customer at the Pro Spa Nail & Hair salon on Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. Photo by Crystal Niebla.

But Keo said she has “no clue” whether they can pull that off again should nail salons close next.

“[I’m] disappointed and sad at the same time, especially now, close to the holidays,” Keo said.

She hopes for some type of accommodations—anything—just as long as it helps them stay in business.

Melissa Evans is the Chief Executive Officer of the Long Beach Post and Long Beach Business Journal. Reach her at [email protected], @melissaevansLBP or 562-512-6354.