I have spent a combined 30 hours on planes in the last three weeks and for that reason I am now qualified to tell you that National Treasure and Tomb Raider are basically the same movie. Each has their own thing– what George Lucas calls the “monkey”- basically each has their own reason to watch. National Treasure used American history and patriotism, while Tomb Raider used exotic locations and Angelina Jolie’s hotness. Each movie has a sequel that is slightly different from the original but it (kinda) adds new characters and (kinda) adds layers to the existing characters and the sequel (kinda) has a different end. But my point is this: the Eastern is Tomb Raider and Western conference is National Treasure. Despite the hype and the assumed differences, they are basically the same. Gone are the days when one side of the country had all the big men and the other had all the point guards. The East is probably sexier- LeBron, D-Wade, Dwight Howard, even Derrick Rose are putting on a show but are leading one-man teams; while the West- the Lakers, the Nuggets, the Hornets, the Blazers- is about near-strangers coming together to form a unit. The Eastern and Western Conferences have the same goals and the same problems to solve, but each gives us different reasons to watch- even if we already know how this is gonna end.
Western Conference
The Pre-text
Last year the Lakers breezed through the West. It took them only 15 games to get to the Finals (Boston took 20 games.) Were they ultimately hampered by the lack of competition in the West last year? If they had played some tougher opponents would they have been better prepared for the C’s? Or no matter who was in their way, were the Lakers just too determined to be in the Finals? Is this year’s crop actually better, will it have the same ending?
The Reason to watch
Lakers/Jazz: If Kobe leads LA to the Finals it will be his 6th Finals appearance in 13 seasons. And with Bynum and Ariza in the fold, this Lakers team is stronger than last year’s- and stronger than any team Kobe had before, even during the Shaq years- but so too is the field in the West. The Lakers should dispose of the Jazz but the rest of the series are up in the air.
Nuggets/Hornets: Denver has really put themselves together but can Chris Paul rise to the occasion (even if his supporting cast is, um, let’s say: less than adequate)?
Rockets/Blazers: Can Ron Artest and Yao Ming continue to contain the young, hot, Blazers?
Spurs/Mavs: This is like a naked, mud-wrestling match between Demi Moore and Michelle Pfeiffer- I mean sure you’ll watch now but wouldn’t this have been amazing a few years ago (real quick sidenote: I think I’ve found the only thing that ages faster than hot chicks- basketball teams. I wanted to find two hot chicks from like 2002 that weren’t really hot anymore except that every list had like Natalie Portman and Angelina Jolie so the joke didn’t really work. Instead I had to go back to ’95 to find two chicks that were over the hill enough. I’m just saying- I thought hot actresses aged in dog years but clearly Jason Kidd and Tim Duncan have aged even quicker.)
Round 2: This might be exciting. If CP3 survives, he could clearly dispatch of the San Antonio/Dallas winner, but then again if the Nuggets pull off the round 1 upset they would easily make it to the Conference Finals.
Meanwhile the Lakers should be able to knock off the Rockets easily (despite the Shane Battier-can-stop-Kobe hype, the Lakers were 4-0 this season against them.) But there is this groundswell of people that believe the Blazers could stop the Lakers. Let me just put an end to that right now- yes the Lakers/Blazers split the season series (with each taking their home games) but there’s no way that Brandon Roy or anyone else on the Blazers can stop Kobe, there’s no way Portland has enough of an inside presence to stop Bynum/Gasol, there’s no way they win a game in LA. It’s just not going to happen. I am saying it right now- there is no way the Lakers get bounced before the NBA Finals.
A Lakers/Hornets Conference Finals would be fun simply to see Chris Paul do his thing, but barring a major injury, the Lakers are a lock (and of course by that I mean an injury to Kobe. Gasol or Bynum could cover for the other’s absence; Ariza or Odom could do the same; obviously Farmer/Fisher could. Kobe is not as good as he was 4 years ago, but he is still the most irreplaceable player they’ve got.)
Eastern Conference
The Pre-text
Some people have been predicting a Lakers/Cavs match for months. And the KG injury only further cements that. LeBron is currently the most unstoppable force in the NBA (is that the same as MVP, I’m not sure) but there is no way a healthy LeBron gets stopped before the Finals.
The Reason to watch
That said, there are still some fantastic things coming from the East.
Cavs/Pistons: The Cavs will simply destroy the Pistons in round 1. No further analysis needed.
Celtics/Bulls: I want to say something like: Ray Allen/Paul Pierce will remind the Bulls how far away they truly are. But we already know that’s not true. A split in Boston is a terrible result for the C’s, and I have a simple explanation: Stephon Marbury.
Magic/ 76ers: Yes Game 1 was exciting but that will be the end of that. Dwight Howard is simply too much for Philly.
Heat/Hawks: This is obviously the one to watch. It’s certainly a shame that Atlanta couldn’t have drawn a wounded Celtics team in order to finish what they started last year, but they do have a chance to stop the Heat. But I am pulling for the Heat and here’s why:
Round 2: If D-Wade and the Heat can last through the first round, the 2nd round matchup against LeBron could be something special. Dwayne Wade is probably the only person in the world that LeBron is jealous of, and they are certainly playing anything-you-can-do-I-can-do-better. Has anyone ever scored 300 points in a 6-game series? Has there ever been a series in which each team had one player lead them in points, assists, rebounds, and steals? Make no mistake, the Cavs will win this series in 6 (if not sooner) but this is the one match-up that could actually drain LeBron.
During that time the Magic/Celtics series could be interesting just to see how much Jesus and the Truth have left in the tank (on that note, I demand that Ray Allen and Paul Pierce be given a reality show simply to use the name- Jesus and the Truth- heck it doesn’t even have to be a reality show that name would be perfect for a buddy cop movie), and if Orlando pulls it out and matches up with Cleveland in the Conference Finals that could be another knock on LeBron. Surely Cleveland will come out of that series too but Howard/James is a Superman/Superman matchup, and if Howard knocks LeBron down every time he goes to the lane then Orlando can stretch this thing out- but ultimately Cleveland/LA is pre-ordained.
Save yourself a couple hours and take my word for it- National Treasure and Tomb Raider are the same movie, even down to having Jon Voight play the long-lost father in both. The sequels aren’t much different either, except that in one version a main character doesn’t make it out but in the other they do. And right now it looks safe to say that last year’s movie stars, the Celtics, aren’t going to be in the sequel for very long. Instead this time around we’ve got our familiar heroes, the Lakers, going up against the new bad-asses from Cleveland. Sometimes the sequel is better, sometimes it’s not, but there should be little doubt that with this second-chance the Lakers will make sure the Finals have a different result this time around, and despite knowing how it’s going to end I still want to watch every minute of it.