Dear Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman,

Look to the left of you, look to the right of you.  Only one of the three of you will make it as an NFL quarterback.  You three are all potential.  You’re all private workouts and signing bonuses.  And as a Jets fan, I hope we end up with one of you.  But, no offense, I’m not getting too attached.  From here on out I’m treating all quarterbacks like lost puppies–sure it’s cute the way you run around and (sometimes) you destroy something of mine but ultimately you’re not mine, you’re no one’s; doomed to go from yard to yard until animal control puts you down. 

I know I sound pessimistic (or downright morbid) but I hope you’ve been watching the Jay Cutler situation play out.  It was just 3 years ago that he was the third QB drafted–currently the best from that class–but even he is fair game to get traded, but neither he (nor I) knew that until recently.  So you guys need to know it too.  It’s not going to be easy; in fact what you’re trying to do–be a starting quarterback in the NFL–is going to be difficult (at best) and excruciating at worst.  While the Jay Cutler trade may have changed the look of the NFL Draft, it didn’t change the fact that you three will be the first QBs taken, and it certainly didn’t change the fact that (at least) two of you won’t last very long. 

I keep going back-and-forth on the Cutler trade.  Two first-rounders and Kyle Orton?  That seems too high a price to pay.  But then again, giving up your franchise QB for some lottery tickets?  That’s an awfully big risk.  I get what both teams were thinking.  You three are all just out of college, so let me put this in a way you guys would understand: the Broncos just spent their college years in a relationship and have now convinced themselves: Hey I’m in my mid-20s I should be living it up and not be tied down. While the Bears spent their college years dating a bunch of drunken sorority girls so now they’re ready for something else: I’m closer to 30 than to 20 I really need to find someone to commit to. Denver clearly had something good going but now they’re starting over at QB and–if Tony Scheffler’s comments are any indication–the rest of the offense feels like they just got dumped too.  Meanwhile the Bears don’t have any wide-receiving options so getting a QB with no one to throw to doesn’t help their situation either.  Like I said, I’m going back and forth on this… 

But back to my original point–only one of you is ultimately gonna cut it.  Looking back over the last 10 drafts, one thing becomes abundantly clear: of the top 3 QBs taken only one will be a success.  In fact in each draft there will be a Groucho, a Zeppo, and a Harpo.  The ’98 draft is the perfect example.  For every Peyton Manning, there is a Ryan Leaf and Charlie Batch.  With few exceptions, every draft is gonna give you 3 top QBs and of those three- one will be a success, one will be a failure, and one will end up a somewhere in between.  ’99 brought us Donovan McNabb but also Tim Couch and Akili Smith.  In 2000 it was Chad Pennington but also Giovanni Carmazzi and Chris Redman.  Which role each of the three will take is not always clear at the beginning.  2001 looked like Mike Vick would be the success and Drew Brees was going to be the journeyman, even the 3^rd QB (Quincy Carter) had his time in the spotlight too; but now ‘01 can be remembered as the only draft (so far) to have 2 top QBs serve jail-time. 

There are exceptions to the rule as well: 2002 (David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Patrick Ramsey) seems to have 3 Zeppos while 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger) seems to have 3 quality QBs.  But sandwiched in between was the ‘03 draft.  Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, and Kyle Boller were taken as the first 3, so it looks like the quintessential QB draft (assuming Carson can regain his form from a few years ago.)    

There is arguably no position in all of sports that is more crucial to a team’s success than the quarterback, but as you guys already know that is a mixed blessing.  You will be thrown into the fire before any of your draft classmates, you will be paid better than any of them, and you will be cast aside before any of them as well.  Just looking at the 2008 NFL season it becomes clear that no team knows exactly how to find a QB.  Over 40 quarterbacks started at least one game last year, and only 18 of them started for the team that drafted them.  In fact only 4 QBs started for a team that drafted them more than 4 years ago.  QBs have a shorter shelf-life than a 16-year-old pop singer.  You’re going to (metaphorically) turn 18 sometime soon and when you do, no one will want you anymore. 

In fact, young QBs are very much like pop singers–despite so many disappointments everybody seems to think they will be the exception.  This past season’s Avril Lavigne and Hillary Duff was of course Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, who both led their teams to the playoffs in their rookie years.  But we have seen time and again that so much success so soon ultimately does more harm than good.  Playing a rookie QB is not good for the team and it’s not good for the player.  Does the name Shaun King ring a bell?  Drafted in the 2^nd round of ’99 by Tampa Bay, by mid-season King was starting and lead the team to the NFC Title game.  Surely he was on his way to big things.  In 2000 he started every game for the Bucs.  That year he was average at best and before the ’01 season he was benched.  He would start 3 more games the rest of his career, and he would retire at age 26.  In fact of the 12 QBs drafted in that ’99 draft, ten of them are out of football completely–and an eleventh (Daunte Culpepper) has launched his own version of a comeback tour.

Guys I don’t mean to scare you but let me repeat that stat–only 4 quarterbacks are still with a team that drafted them more than 4 years ago.  The odds are stacked against you.  The odds are stacked against the teams that draft you.  Basically what I’m saying is: no matter where you end up–rent, don’t buy.  And thinking about all of this–all the hurdles, all the failures of so many QBs, the Cutler trade begins to make sense for both teams.  The Bears got a QB that they feel they can build around; they decided they just weren’t good at developing QBs (because they’re not) and it was worth it for them to just go buy one- no matter the cost.  The Broncos on the other hand have to start from scratch at QB, so what did they ask for?  They asked for Kyle Orton and 2 first-rounders.  They asked for three shots to get it right.