I usually don’t give fantasy advice, in fact I never give fantasy advice. Presumably because I’m not very good at it. Until today. So if all members of the Steak and Lobster League would kindly stop reading I will let the rest of you in on something. Ready? Here it is: the WBC is bad for your health.
I don’t mean watching Brian Roberts make that back-breaking error against Japan is going to kill you– although studies have shown that it increased the likelihood of me breaking my hand by punching a wall. I’m also not just referring to Kevin Youklis, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Matt Lindstrom, or Ryan Braun– each injured in the tournament. Instead, I mean the pitchers that participated in the 2006 WBC had a significantly worse year because of it, and the same thing is going to happen to this year’s staff.
What no gasp? No shock and awe? Admittedly it’s not a report of who’s on HGH this year– that would be fantasy gold. However this is a pretty big revelation and I’ve got the facts to back it up. I don’t have a great track record in terms of fantasy, although I did beat the guys that got way too drunk at the draft (wait no, check that- they won the whole thing) but I did beat the guys that had to draft by phone. So maybe that’s my key, it’s not super secret inside information, it’s just making sure the other guys don’t show up.
Go back with me to 2006- the USA had Jake Peavy, Dontrelle Willis, and Roger Clemens starting for them and had a deep bullpen. Jake Peavy was coming off a 2005 year in which he threw 203 innings, struck out 216 guys and had an ERA of 2.88; then he pitched in the WBC before the ’06 season. That year he threw 202 innings (meaning no major injury issues), he struck out 215 guys (meaning no major velocity or mechanics issues), but his ERA was 4.09. With everything else about the same, his ERA jumped 42%; the following year- 223 innings, 240 Ks, and an ERA right back down to 2.54. Again this wasn’t a career changing event that caused him to lose it for good. Instead he had a one-year fluke that just happened to coincide with the WBC. But that’s all it was right, just a coincidence? Clemens battled injuries so he’s not a good test but let’s look at the other starter, Dontrelle Willis. He had at least 200 innings in ’05, ’06, and ’07, but his ERA went 2.63, 3.87, 5.17. So he had a 47% jump in the WBC season but it just got worse, so it might have been him and not just the added strain of completive games in March.
That is what this whole idea relies on- the idea that the reason a pitcher would have a bad 2006, while 2005 and 2007 were good, is that American pitchers slowly warm up. They come to training camp earlier, slowly rounding into shape and hopefully by April they are ready. But guys that pitch in the WBC lose a month of their off-season, and worse they jump right into high-pressure situations so quickly that their bodies are never really recovered during that entire season. For this to be true, we need a control group- like Latin American pitchers that go play in the Winter leagues back home. They don’t have the round-into-shape-in-April mentality because they are used to pitching year-round, so how did they do in those 3 years? Looking at the Dominican Republic team, there are a lot of them that just don’t have enough innings to properly test- Bartolo Colon battled injuries, Miguel Baptista and Julian Tavares switched back and forth from starter to reliever making it tough to compare seasons. But Odalis Perez pitched 108, 126, and 137 innings respectively in ’05, ’06, ’07 and his ERA went 4.56, 6.20, 5.57 so clearly there is something to be said for the WBC-effect on him. But then there’s Daniel Cabrera- starter all 3 years- his ’05 ERA was 4.52, then his ’06 ERA was 4.70 (a less than 4% increase); or there’s Damasco Marte, who pitched 45 innings in ’05 giving up an ERA of 3.77 but in his ’06 WBC year his ERA went down 2% from the year before to 3.70 while pitching more innings (58.) Or there’s Duaner Sanchez who’s ’05 ERA was 3.70 and his ’06 was 2.60 (a 30% drop!) before the ’07 season when he went back to a 4.32 ERA. While Odalis Perez struggled that year, the rest of the year-round Dominican pitchers had just as good- if not better- years immediately following the WBC.
Or there are the Venezuelans. Carlos Zambrano went from a 3.26 (in ’05) to a 3.41 (in ’06), which is a relatively insignificant increase of less than 5%; meanwhile Johan Santana had a small drop going from 2.88 in ’05 to 2.77 in ’06. But Frankie Rodriguez had a huge post-WBC improvement, ’05 2.67, ’06 1.73, ’07 2.81. Clearly he had a one-year fluke in the opposite direction of the Americans, and on a related note he spent the winter of 2005/06 pitching in the Venezuelan league.
Another pillar for this argument would be that hitters wouldn’t have a one-year WBC drop because they didn’t overly strain themselves like American pitchers do. Well Chipper Jones went from a .296 batting avg and 21 home runs in 2005 to batting .324 with 26 home runs after the WBC. Chase Utley: .291 up to .309, while homers went from 28 to 32; Jeter went from .309 to .343 but back down to .322 in ’07 all while having a similar number of at-bats. A-Rod of course proves the exception to the rule, he went from .321 down to .290 but back up to .314; although I wonder if the WBC had more frequent steroid testing? Foreign batters showed similar consistency if not actual increases. Venezulan Miguel Cabrera went from .323 to .339 to .320. Dominican Alfonso Soriano went from .268 with 36 home runs to .277 with 46 homers, Albert Pujols .330 with 41 to .331 with 49, both saw consistency in average while increasing their homers significantly. Again, almost no hitters showed any lingering effects from the WBC and most showed an improvement (possibly from rounding into shape quicker by seeing top-notch pitching all through March.)
Looking again at the US, it wasn’t just the two starters that felt it for the rest of the year. Chad Cordero went from a 1.82 ERA to a 3.19- a 75% jump in just one year. Brian Fuentes had a 20% jump from 2005 to 2006 (from 2.91 to 3.44) but dropped 10% in ’07 (down to 3.08.) Todd Jones saw an 87% jump in ’06; Brad Lidge went from 2.29 to 5.28 then back down to 3.36. Gary Majewski saw a 57% jump; Huston Street and Mike Timlin both saw one year jumps but ’07 they dropped it right back down (1.72, 3.31, 2.88 and 2.24, 4.36, 3.42 respectively.) They nearly doubled their ERA after pitching in the WBC! Of the 12 pitchers on the roster, only Joe Nathan actually improved his ERA that year.
If I asked you to go do a triathlon tomorrow, do you think you could do it? How do you think you’d feel the day after? What if you’re used to doing the triathlon and then I asked you to do it a month earlier than expected? Wouldn’t it have a lingering effect on you? This idea is so simple it’s no wonder no one else in your league is gonna figure it out.
While I am not very good at spotting fantasy sleepers, I am usually pretty good at seeing guys that actually contribute- the Shane Battier Hall of Famers if you will (soon to be renamed the Trevor Ariza All-Stars.) But in looking for the guys that play defense and breakup double-plays I can occasionally stumble onto some actual fantasy trends as well. And I’m telling you right now that Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, and the rest of the American pitchers are going to pay the price for this tournament and if you own them on your fantasy team you’ll pay too. Maybe, just maybe, if you take my advice on this one you will finally win your league…assuming the other nine guys don’t show up.