A few years ago a friend and I developed a theory about bands that release double-albums; we named it “The White Album theory” and our hypothesis was essentially that when a band releases a double-album it almost always signifies the beginning of the end.  But we diverged on the reason why- my theory was that they hit a critical and commercial peak that became burdensome and they just wanted to pack it in; his take on it was the opposite, that they were already about to break up and decided they didn’t want to drag out their existence any longer than they had to. 

Smashing Pumpkins’ Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness seems to go with my theory: they hit their peak, they then tried to change direction but couldn’t, and ultimately had to break up. 

Outkast’s Speakerboxx/The Love Below seems to go with the other idea: clearly Big Boi and Andre had hit a wall and they just wanted to throw whatever they had out there just to end it quicker. 

But what about the theory’s namesake, the White Album?  Like Smashing Pumpkins, the Beatles released other albums after their double-album but by all accounts they were at the end before that last album ever came out.  But were they done because they had peaked, or were they done as a band because they were done as friends? 

I know that sounds like a weird intro, even for me, but here’s the thing: this year is the Chargers’ White Album.  It’s not just a make-or-break year but a culmination of all the turmoil they have dealt with throughout the last few years.  Both the Beatles and the Chargers have seen more change in the last few years than they know what to do with, and how they respond to it will be a real sign of who they are.

The Beatles changed from ‘boy band’ to serious musician just like the Chargers franchise changed from perennial doormat to perennial contender.  It was only 5 years ago that Eli Manning refused to play for the Chargers because of their ‘culture of losing.’  The 54 games they have won since then makes him look pretty foolish.  Of course the constant drama in the Chargers front-office (and Eli’s Super Bowl ring) might prove he made the right choice. 

Goodbye Marty Schottenheimer, Brian Epstein

Epstein built the Beatles into what we know today before his untimely death led them to get a new guru. Marty built the Chargers into what we know today before his untimely firing led to Norv Turner.  Schottenheimer had built a bond with LT and the team. He even oversaw the change from Brees to Rivers and it only improved the team.  And frankly he was a fumble recovery away from conquering some of his personal demons.  But alas the fates are cruel. 

LT and the team lost a father-figure and the Beatles lost their friend and manager.  If Epstein doesn’t OD do the Beatles go on to make the White Album; if Schottenheimer stays, do the Chargers go on to win 3 playoff games in the next 2 seasons? 

Philip Rivers is Yoko Ono

I’m going to tread lightly on this one but let me just point out that both came in midway through, both inspired a whole other level of performance, and both ultimately lead to the breakup.  Rivers with his new contract, Yoko with her Yoko-ness. 

When the Chargers let Brees go, many- myself included- thought that was the beginning of the end, but clearly Rivers has proven himself and this time next year he’s going to get paid.  Normally locking up your franchise QB wouldn’t be a terrible problem for an organization except that while Philip Rivers is in the last year of his contract, so is Shawne Merriman.  So are their three best wide receivers: Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd.  So is their best offensive lineman, Marcus McNeil.  And of course Darren Sproles is also working with only a one year franchise-tagged contract. 

So who does that leave in 2010?  Well Jamal Williams, Antonio Gates and Antonio Cromartie who are all free agents the year after that.  And let’s not forget that LT’s clock is ticking and when these guys go, LT will be cut. 

The point is this: this team is about to be blown up; this is their last chance.  But we have no clue how it will turn out.  If they win it all- and I mean nothing short of a Super Bowl win- then the front office makes room to keep most (if not all) of them.  But if they stumble, if they fall short, then the San Diego Chargers as you know them are done. 

There are other teams that have faced this kind of situation.  The 2002 Buccaneers come to mind.  Warren Sapp has said it repeatedly: they knew that when Tony Dungy got fired and Jon Gruden was bought in, that it was the last chance for the players.  That defense had been together so long, that it was going to get one year to do it or it was over.  For the Chargers, it’s the offense and defense that have been given their chance and if this doesn’t work out- something, everything- is going to need to change.

Obviously the dynamics of football teams and bands are very different.  But there’s a shelf-life for everything and this is one of those times when everybody already knows that the end is near.  Maybe the Chargers will find a way to stay together for a year or two, put another album out if you will, but this is going to be their peak.  Or it may turn out that some of them were already out the door.