This past weekend didn’t go flawlessly for NASCAR–a pothole at Daytona saw to that.  In fact the first month of the season hasn’t gone all that well for NASCAR–they teamed with HBO hoping they could build some preseason buzz, but it didn’t work.  Actually the entire last few years for NASCAR have been lackluster.  And there’s one reason: Jimmie Johnson.  The 4-times-and-counting Champ has ushered in an era when NASCAR drivers could be replaced by Vicki from Small Wonder and no one would notice.  I’m not asking to go back to the days of moonshine and trackside fights, but can we at least go back to the days when personality was rewarded?  Instead all we’ve got are automatons programmed for left turns and sales pitches.  Surprisingly enough we might be right about to enter a re-birth of the sport; but first someone needs to defeat Jimmie Johnson.

The last few years haven’t gone well for NASCAR because after growing, quickly, throughout the late 90s, NASCAR–if you’ll pardon the expression–is at a crossroads.  The sport has tried to stretch itself from sea to shining sea, like the NBA adding franchises in Vancouver and Charlotte.  And just like the NBA has learned, not every market is worthy of that attention.  And also like the NBA, NASCAR is better when it’s controversial.

The late-90s boom was fueled in large part by Jeff Gordon.  Some tuned in to cheer him, a lot more tuned in to cheer against him- a guy from California wine country who drove a rainbow colored car wasn’t immensely popular with the traditional good ol’ boy fan, who woulda guessed?  But both the new Californian fan and the good ol’ boy both watched Gordon’s every move and that not surprisingly was good for the sport (although throwing beer cans at him probably needs to stop).  Also not surprisingly, a sport from North Carolina that prides itself on being passed from father to son still loves Dale Jr. the most (if you need the last name you probably aren’t still reading this column.)  But as Junior’s star faded, so too has NASCAR’s ratings. 

All of this has coincided with Jimmy Johnson’s rise.  He too is a California boy, who is from a racing family, but something hasn’t clicked between him and the masses.  So while he is the best driver today (and with 4 straight championships there’s an argument to be made that he’s the best ever) he is, for all intents and purposes, the San Antonio Spurs.  Boring, predictable, and ultimately bad for the sport.  Would it be better for the NBA if Tim Duncan were more like Charles Barkley?  Would it be better for NASCAR if Jimmy Johnson were more like Tony Stewart?  The short answer is yes, and the long answer involves figuring out, philosophically, if we’d rather have our stars be something they’re not.  

Which brings us to why the last month hasn’t been going well for NASCAR: HBO’s 24/7.  Surely the month-long show about Johnson and the 48 team preparing for Daytona was supposed to humanize JJ and make us like him more.  It hasn’t.  If you’ve watched HBO’s PRiffic show- usually reserved for their big PPV boxing matches- you know that “a few weeks in the life” of a star athlete can be compelling TV.  But it turns out it’s only compelling when it’s Manny Pacquiao, because watching a week in the life of Jimmy Johnson is about as exciting as watching the world’s most expensive paint dry.  Surely the show was supposed to prove that Jimmy Johnson works out a lot, and that was designed to show us that drivers are athletes too (although Denny Hamlin announcing that he will race the entire season with a torn ACL hurts the cause a little bit.) 

But instead the show reinforces everything we’ve thought about Jimmy: nice guy, but kinda boring.  In fact during one sit-down for the show he openly admitted that he’s scrapped away any last chunk of personality so that he could make corporations feel more okay with him.  He might as well have placed a sticker on his forehead that said “Place ad here.”  NASCAR seems to have made the decision that it would be easier to make Johnson more popular than it would be to make another driver better; unfortunately for NASCAR, either option seems a monumental challenge. 

But there’s hope for NASCAR.  And that hope is tied up in what made racing great in the first place.  NASCAR, the fun NASCAR, the real racing NASCAR, the what-makes-us-different-tha-F1 NASCAR, died the day Dale Earnhardt Sr. did.  A sport that lives on the edge loses some of its luster when it goes over that edge; it’s why I can’t watch luge during these Olympics.  Earnhardt’s death prompted NASCAR to make new cars and new rules and while it brought them back from over the edge, it also took away some of the risk that made it enjoyable. 

But this past offseason NASCAR did some soul-searching and some bumper testing and came to the conclusion that these cars are safe, and when you’re safe in the car, suddenly it’s okay to ram into them, suddenly bumping was okay again.  NASCAR has always been more exciting than Formula 1 because there’s more passing in a lap of NASCAR than there is in an entire F1 race, but now not only are people passing but they are aggressively doing so.  Suddenly the Tony Stewarts and the Kyle Buschs are in their element, the win-or-wreck guys have their ammo back, and not surprisingly those guys are also the best personalities.  Also not surprisingly those guys are hated by rivals’ fans.  Controversy equals ratings, and JJ48 is going to have to evolve. 

Jimmie Johnson has been succeeding during a time when it wasn’t okay to move someone out of the way, it wasn’t okay to be on the edge.  Jimmy has always been a guy under control.  But control is boring.  Consistency is boring.  So if Jimmy Johnson wants to survive this new old-NASCAR, he’s going to have to get his hands dirty.  Which, if he can do it, will make him a lot more interesting.