AFC
1. To the Tennessee Titans–
Madolyn: Why is the last patient of the day always the hardest?
Billy Costigan: Because you’re tired and you don’t give a s***. It’s not super-natural.
In the last 15 years, only 3 teams that lost their Week 17 game went on to win the Super Bowl (’94 Niners, ’99 Rams, ’07 Giants.) Momentum is a very real thing and not coming to play in Week 17 is a bad sign. The Titans acted like the Colts game didn’t matter, and now they will have to spend two weeks thinking about it. But it’s ok because Jeff Fisher can now spend the bye week filming his “Just For Men” commercial. Seriously, Jeff, the gray goatee is weird; dye it black, dye it maroon and gold, I don’t care. Just get rid of the gray.
Getting Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Van Den Bosch back for the playoffs will make a big difference, but this team has some major weaknesses. Their run game drives the offense but it can get shut down, which in turn, shuts down the entire offense. When their leading rusher had less than 65 yards they averaged 16 pts a game. When their leading rusher had more than 65 yards they scored 29 a game.
Defense and running the ball can definitely take a team far, particularly when they have home field throughout; but of their three possible opponents- both the Ravens and Chargers provide match-up problems for the Titans and now the Colts will have confidence and experience.
2. To the Pittsburgh Steelers– “One of us had to die. With me, it tends to be the other guy.” Frank Costello
This has to be considered the luckiest team in the NFL. They were 6-2 in close games including 5 wins in the final 2 minutes of regulation or OT. But then again, it might be more than luck. Consistently pulling out tough games could be attributed to being a veteran team with good coaching. For my money Troy Polamalu should be an MVP-candidate. He is the most important player on the league’s number one D (both in yards and points allowed.) In fact this defense has to scare everybody.
They seem to have a major problem protecting Big Ben. Roethlisberger must have insulted his o-line’s mother or slept with their wives because there is no reason the biggest QB in the league gets sacked 46 times in a season.
I think the Steelers would rather face Miami than the winner of Colts/Chargers, but there’s no team that they can’t beat. That said, they come into the playoffs with two big questions marks: Big Ben’s health and the fact that they had more turnovers than any other AFC playoff team.
3. To the Miami Dolphins–
Frank Costello: You do well in school?
Young Colin: Yeah
Frank Costello: Good. So did I. They call that a paradox.
A few weeks ago I wrote my “Why You’re Not a Playoff Team” column and I was sure the Dolphins wouldn’t make it to the postseason. However, I could not think of a single reason they were not a playoff-caliber team. They run the ball well (with two strong backs), their QB can make important throws but rarely makes mistakes, they are #1 in the league in Turnover margin, and they’re a Top-10 defense (in points-allowed.) This team is well-rounded and had a very good regular season. But there’s just one problem…they are not very good.
This team is a product of a very weak schedule. They only played 3 playoff teams (none since week 7.) The only good team they played in the 2nd half of the year (the Patriots) beat them by 20. They now have home-field advantage against a rookie QB in the playoffs, so this Dolphins team should be a shoe-in. Instead, I don’t know how they beat the Ravens. The one-year turnaround has been quite impressive, but Miami needs to get some playmakers on both sides of the ball if they’re going to become an elite team.
4. To the San Diego Chargers– “I’ve got a question- how f***’d up are you?” Sean Dignam
The Chargers didn’t beat a single playoff team this year. And yet…they have to be scary to every other AFC team. But their defense is terrible. They can’t get any pressure, they haven’t generated turnovers, and they allow a ton of yards. This team went 2-7 in close games (and those 2 wins were over the Chiefs); after 2 seasons with him I am now fully confident that Norv Turner is a real-life Forrest Gump. He just kind of stands there and amazing things happen around him. And yet, because of everything that happened to get them in the playoffs, this team has a “Team of Destiny” belief in themselves.
Somebody had a sign at Sunday’s Chargers/Broncos game that just said “Redemption.” Redemption for the lost against Denver in week 2. Redemption for the lost at home to the Colts. Redemption for LT for the boos. Redemption for Norv for the “Marty” chants. This team isn’t perfect, but they are redeeming themselves. But…which team will show up this Saturday?
5. To the Indianapolis Colts– “Lot of people had to die for me to be me.” Frank Costello
Without a doubt this Colts team is the hottest in the NFL right now. For nine weeks they have eliminated everyone in their path to turn their 3-4 start into a 12-4 record. Somehow it’s like this team got younger and healthier throughout this season, like there’s a picture of Peyton Manning aging in a closet somewhere. The streak started with a week 9 Sunday night win over the Patriots but it includes a 4-point road win over the Steelers and a 3-pt road win over the Chargers; in fact they went 5-1 against playoff teams. This team is good: they are a Top-10 defense (in points allowed), they don’t turn the ball over, and Peyton Manning gives them the chance to score at anytime (particularly in the final 2 minutes of a half.) 2006 gives them experience and 2007 gives them motivation. They can go very deep into the playoffs…but they have to get through the Chargers first.
Can they beat the Chargers in San Diego for the 2nd time this year? Can they avenge last year’s postseason loss to San Diego? Will their run defense (24th in the league) be their Achilles heal? I have no doubt this Saturday’s game will be epic, and I believe that the winner of this game could very well go to the Super Bowl.
6. To the Baltimore Ravens– “Who thinks they can do what you do better than you?” Billy Costigan
A strong run game, a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over, and a defense that is scary-good. Am I crazy, or does that sound like Tennessee, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Baltimore? And that blueprint was drawn up perfectly by the 2000 Ravens. A Trent Dilfer-led Super Bowl victory gave everyone else hope that they could win it all without a top-notch quarterback. The Buccaneers did it two years later and the Steelers did it a few years after that. This kind of team can win in the playoffs. And Baltimore is hoping the formula can still work for them.
Their playmakers are on the defensive side of the ball, in fact if Troy Polamalu is an MVP-candidate then Ed Reed should be the MVP (9 ints, 3 TDs.) Their defense is just as good as Tennessee or Pittsburgh, which is to say it is the best in the league. This team matches up well with Miami, they could then beat Tennessee (who they lost to be 3 pts in week 5), they could then beat Pittsburgh (who they lost to be 3 and 4 pts), and suddenly they are in the Super Bowl. And if you don’t believe that’s possible, I only need remind you that Pittsburgh in 2005 was a 6th seed that was lead by a big D and a young QB. These Ravens are 15 to 1 in Vegas to win the Super Bowl; right now I wouldn’t bet against them.
NFC
1.To the New York Giants– “No one gives it to you, you have to take it” Frank Costello
The Giants had a tough stretch in weeks 8 through 13 (@ Pittsburgh, v Dallas, @ Philly, vs. Baltimore, @Arizona, @ Washington) and yet they went 6-0 and won by an avg of nearly 13 points a game. At times this team has been Dominant. But two days before that week 13 game, Plaxico Burress thought it would be a good idea to wear sweat pants to a club. Since the fallout from that began the Giants have gone 1-3 and Eli Manning has not had a single 200-yd game.
However even without a big-time receiver the Giants still have a Top 5 defense and the best running game in the league. Eli Manning has turned into the mistake-free QB that this team needs and in turn had his best season yet. So why don’t I believe they will win it all? Honestly, I don’t know. I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe I expect someone in the playoffs to shut down the run game; maybe I expect someone to force Eli into mistakes; maybe I expect someone to break their defense; maybe I just feel like their luck has run out. They have proved that last year wasn’t a fluke, but I just don’t see this team winning it all again…or maybe the thought of sticking it to Jeremy Shockey again will motivate them to go all the way.
2. To the Carolina Panthers– “You have an immaculate record. Some people don’t trust a guy with an immaculate record. I do. I have an immaculate record.” Capt Ellerby
There is only one team in the NFL that is undefeated at home this year (only one!), the Carolina Panthers. They are going to be hosting at least one playoff game; and if somehow the Giants get knocked out then the Panthers get the Conference Championship at home too. But that loss to New York might mean Carolina will have to win on the road if they want to make it to the Super Bowl.
And at home I like the Panthers, a lot. But on the road? I don’t know; I just don’t trust them. They have a good offense- 10th in yards, 7th in points, 3rd-best running the ball. And they don’t make many mistakes- 3rd best in the NFC in turnover margin. But their defense leaves something to be desired- 18th in yards allowed, 12th in points allowed, 20th against the rush. They just don’t have a playmaker on D that can win them a game.
The Panthers beat the Chargers in San Diego in Week 1 on a touchdown with no time left; the Chargers radio guys believe that the way this year has gone it would only make sense if the Super Bowl came down to Chargers/Panthers and a last-second play. I think they’re right. And part of me is really pulling for the Panthers to make it to the Super Bowl, of course that might just be because every time they make it Janet Jackson shows her boob. *fingers crossed*
3. To the Minnesota Vikings– “I base most of what I do on the idea that you’re pretty good at what you do.” Billy Costigan
What if the Vikings had Kerry Collins? Or Jeff Garcia? Or heck even Trent Dilfer? If the Vikings decided to go with the Ravens blueprint, and got a no-turnover QB and based everything on their ability to run and to stop the run they would be in a much better position. The Vikings were the best run defense in the league (by a lot.) They were the fifth best rushing team (all 5 made the playoffs.) They got to play the Lions. Twice. There is only one reason they struggled: turnovers.
They were 29th in the league in turnovers, their turnover margin was a minus 6, that is the worst of the playoff teams. The Miami Dolphins were a +17; heck even the Raiders were a +1. But they have Adrian Peterson so that cures all right? Except that AP is Terrell Owens without the drama, by that I mean he is a game-changing talent who occasionally just gets a case of the dropsies. They are a Braylon Edwards trade away from having the worst ball carrying offense in history. Even Gus Ferotte threw 15 interceptions. If this team went after Chad Pennington this past offseason they could be a Super Bowl favorite right now. Instead they are probably going to lose in the first round because they don’t have an answer for the Philly’s offense, and because the Eagles are good at generating- you guessed it- turnovers.
4. To the Arizona Cardinals–
Queenan: “Do you know what we do here?”
Billy Costigan: “Yes, sir. I have an idea-“
Sean Dignam: “-Whoa. Let’s say you have no idea and leave it at that. No idea. Zip. None.”
Welcome to the playoffs Arizona. I feel like we should get you a tour-guide to show you around a little bit. I mean, don’t get too comfy- you won’t be here long- but the Cardinals haven’t won their division since they were in St Louis so enjoy it while you can.
The Arizona Cardinals are the most one-dimensional team in the playoffs. They don’t run the ball, they don’t have any defense to speak of but that offense is dangerous. I am secret hoping for a San Diego/Arizona just to see the first 200 point game in Super Bowl history. Arizona is Top 2 in Passing, Top 4 in scoring, 28th in defense and dead-last in rushing.
I feel like the Cardinals are freshmen on a college campus and we need to get a senior to do orientation for them. I wonder if the Cowboys are available…
5. To the Atlanta Falcons– “Maybe it would have done you some good to have some *questions* from time to time, you know? Am I an a-hole? Are my kids a mess?” Billy Costigan
This is no longer John Madden’s NFL. A team of misfits and thugs, like 70s/80s Raiders, does not cut it anymore. This is a lesson most owners have learned (except for Jerry Jones and of course Al Davis.) After Atlanta went into the tank last season they went and got a GM nobody’s heard of, a coach nobody had heard of, they got the backup running back from the Chargers and a rookie QB. But the best thing they did? Cut all of the bad-character guys. Deangelo Hall, Alge Crumpler, and a handful of others were shown the door in the offseason and suddenly this team is not only fun to cheer for, but actually quite good.
That said, rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to be poised. Backup running backs aren’t supposed to be able to come in and do this. Defenses that are 24th in yards allowed aren’t supposed to be 11th in points allowed. Offensive lines that were 25th in sacks allowed last year aren’t supposed to move up to 5th best in sacks allowed this year. Bottom line: this team has over-performed expectations and their own statistics.
They will probably take a step backwards next year as they regress to the mean but this year they took a giant leap forward and it all began when they got rid of the guys that didn’t want to be there. And they have to be considered heavy favorites over the Cardinals.
6. To The Philadelphia Eagles– “I’m the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.” Sean Dignam
Coming into the Week 17 there were 4 teams alive for the final wild card spot. Of those four teams, the Eagles were the longest shot- they not only needed to beat the Cowboys but they needed everybody else to lose. Well all of those teams lost their final game, and the Eagles got the job done.
And now this team is dangerous. Going into Minnesota is a great matchup for them, and then they would go to New York (whom they beat at the Meadowlands just a few weeks ago.) They also beat the Falcons, Cardinals, and Steelers; this team is much better than the one that couldn’t beat the Bengals. In fact since getting pulled from that Baltimore game, Donovan McNabb has 9 TDs, 1 int, and 4 games with a QB rating over 90 while the Eagles have gone 4-1. Brian Westbrook is back and DeSean Jackson gives them another playmaker on offense. Their D is always dangerous and is Top 3 in yards-allowed and sacks. This team has the potential to beat the Vikings, Giants, Panthers and make it to the Super Bowl but they also have the potential to get into a 2-minute drill and completely screw it up.
If last year (or watching The Departed) has taught us anything: it’s that anybody that has a sense of entitlement will not make it to the end. And it is with that in mind that I fully expect an Eagles/Ravens Super Bowl.