After 11 straight months of soaring cargo volumes and “the strongest April on record,” officials at the Port of Long Beach warn that May is projected to hold a record of its own, and the title is quite grim.
“May is going to be the first month in a year where we’re anticipating seeing steep declines year over year,” Chief Operating Officer Noel Hacegaba said Tuesday.
Faced with sky-high tariffs on inbound Chinese products and outgoing U.S. materials, officials at the busiest port in the nation say they are quickly becoming a bellwether for the tough times that will mean cut hours for longshoremen, shortages for store owners and tough choices for consumers across the nation.
Speaking to the Long Beach City Council’s Mobility, Ports and Infrastructure Committee Tuesday, Hacegaba said he is already seeing a 30% drop in the number of containers scheduled to arrive at the Port.
Between the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, that rises to a 44% decline in docked vessels this week when compared to last year, as the number of projected blank sailings — or canceled ships — has tripled, with Long Beach alone expecting 34 cancellations through June.
That translates to about 400,000 fewer containers entering through the ports, he added.
Hacegaba attributed the expected downturn to President Donald Trump’s tariffs — most notably, 145% tariffs on Chinese goods — as well as the 125% tax on outgoing goods that China ordered in retaliation. Chinese products constitute 60% of all incoming cargo at the Port, Hacegaba said.
As the Port’s top trading partner by metric tonnage, the flow of goods from China into the U.S. is expected to slow drastically, significantly cutting the 9.6 million 20–foot–equivalent containers Long Beach handled last year when companies were stockpiling ahead of the promised tariffs.
Hacegaba said this will most quickly affect sales of furniture, electronics and apparel — finished consumer goods that wholesalers and retailers buy directly from China.
For shoppers, he predicted, this means “limited choices” and shortages in “certain, seasonal commodities” that could start by this summer.
“It may mean that you’re not going to find the shirt that’s your size, or you might not find the color of the shirt that you’re looking for,” Hacegaba said.
But the drop isn’t exclusive to imports; officials anticipate a sharp decline in top exports like oil seeds, recycled cardboard and food waste.
Raw materials like iron, steel and cotton are also big U.S. commodities, which Hacegaba explained are sent to factories abroad to assemble products that are sent back to the United States.
For workers, the pullback will have a “very immediate effect” on the Port’s overwhelmingly local workforce, according to Hacegaba.
More than half of the 16,000 full- and part-time workers with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 13 live within a five-mile radius of the San Pedro complex — 74% live within 10 miles.
According to Sal DiCostanzo, a port liaison with ILWU Local 13, dock workers have already begun to see cut hours, less chance for overtime and dwindling jobs as fewer ships pull into the harbor.
The Port’s “casual,” part-time workforce “is likely to experience a significant reduction in work opportunities,” DiCostanzo said, while “fully registered members are probably looking at working fewer hours.”
At monthly ILWU meetings, DiConstanzo said members continue to air concerns about how long these tariffs may last and how deep the cuts to work may be for dock workers.
“We’re anticipating that to at least continue at this pace, if not become worse over the next several weeks,” he added.
Long Beach is an important port, particularly for the West. Combined with the Port of Los Angeles, the two maritime gateways account for nearly a third of all seaborne products to the United States.
From their shared harbor, an increasing portion of the nation’s goods flow and filter through a tributary of trucks, trains and retailers into the hands of consumers across the country.
Workers in every Congressional district in the nation will feel the effects of these tariffs, DiCostanzo said.
“We might feel it the hardest, but everyone is going to feel this, sooner or later,” he said. “It’s just a matter of time.”
Analysts and critics warn that a slowdown here will have national ramifications.
“California’s Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are keystones for the success of not just our state’s economy, but our national economy,” Sen. Alex Padilla said in a news conference last week. “So when the San Pedro Bay ports and other West Coast ports send warning signs about the damage of Trump’s tariffs, we know they’re really warning signs for our country.”
In an Instagram post Tuesday, Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson stood in front of what he said may be “the last tariff-free ships to come to our port.”
“Tariffs are taxes, and the people paying them won’t be in other countries,” Richardson said. “They’ll be right here at home. Small businesses, grocery stores, everyday people like you.”